Monday, December 10, 2007

Recession in Oregon?

Honestly, I don't know. I am not an economist nor do I desire to be one! There is an interesting report that has been released, however, by the real ecnomists at the University of Oregon. Obviously they don't guarantee a coming recession, but if history is any indication, unfortunately the chances are pretty good (bad?) that things aren't going to be pretty.

"As a general rule," according to the Oregon Economic Forum's monthly report released Monday morning, "a decline in the index of greater than 2 percent over six months (annualized), coupled with a decline in more than half of its components, signals that a recession is likely imminent."

The index, maintained by the UO College of Arts and Sciences and its Economics Department, tracks eight indicators ranging from interest rates to payrolls.

In October the index dropped 0.5 percent to 102.0 -- the third consecutive monthly fall. (The index stood at 100 in 1997). Oregon initial unemployment claims rose in October to the highest level since November 2006. Residential building permits issued in the state dropped to the lowest level since September 2000.

Economists cautioned that the "general rule" merely signals, but by no means guarantees, that a recession is coming. But their report highlighted October's negative results, and said: "A decline of this breadth and magnitude preceded the 2001 recession and suggests a weak economic environment in the near term."

This would be one of those times that I hope that the professionals and experts have no idea what they are talking about. I'm not holding my breath.
And here is the rest of it.

1 comment:

Trouble said...

A recession wouldn't surprise me at all if it happened in any state right now. I read up on recessions a couple of weeks ago and I wasnt surprised to see that a war alone could cause one. also the price of oil and weather conditions could play a role in recessions. I certainly wouldnt want to see it happen, but if things dont changeit certainly could happen. let's cross our fingers and hope it doesnt.